UN predicts global trade decline by 20%
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) predicted a decline in world trade this year due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic by about 20%, Izvestia reported.
“World trade is likely to remain below 2019 levels in the second half of this year. The extent of the decline will depend not only on additional economic shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also on the type and scale of policies that countries will pursue to restart their economies,” the report said.
UNCTAD notes that its forecast is consistent with the forecasts of the World Trade Organization, which expects a decline in international trade in the range of 13 to 32%.
The organization adds that due to the coronavirus pandemic, international trade in goods declined by about 5% in the first quarter, and a further decline of 27% is expected in the second quarter.
Currently, UN experts highlight the Chinese economy, since in April its exports grew by 3%. At the same time, for example, in the Eurozone the economy fell by 16%, in the USA and Russia by 29%, and in India by 56%.
Most of all, the recession affected the automotive industry, energy, and the production of precision mechanics. Meanwhile, the demand for medical equipment, materials, and, partly, for office equipment has grown.